Backcasting
Backcasting is a planning method that starts with defining a desirable future and then working backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect that specified future to the present. The fundamentals of the method were outlined by John B. Robinson from the University of Waterloo in 1990 and is also reminiscent of Inversion Technique.
While forecasting involves predicting the future based on current trend analysis, backcasting approaches the challenge of discussing the future from the opposite direction. The idea is to ‘imagine our desired or ideal future,’ regardless of whether it is achievable with the technology and financial resources of today.
This is where many people get stuck; they artificially restrict themselves to what they imagine is feasible in the near-future, forgetting the future is yet to be created!
Instructions
List down your long term goals; think of a time frame between 1 and 20 years.
Work backwards to figure out the necessary actions to achieve the long term goal.
Collect insights over difficulties that might be encountered, steps that need to be taken and resources needed to achieve the goal.
As simple as it may sound to envision future success and work backwards to identify what approaches can be taken in order to achieve results, many people don’t do this when faced with ‘sticky’ challenges.
But as you can see, Backcasting can make for a valuable tool when addressing complex problems, affecting many sectors and levels of society, or when incremental change is not sufficient. It is also useful when external factors play a key role and are not satisfactorily addressed by the present; and when dominant trends (often the cornerstones of forecasts) are part of the problem.
Backcasting can be used in combination with scenario planning, where stakeholders are presented with multiple scenarios and future timeframes, the latter enabling them to better understand the proposed rate of change.
