Why Second-Order Thinking Matters
Second-order thinking is a means of assessing the implications of our ideas and decisions by considering its future consequences. Most typically stop at first-order thinking; second-order thinking is necessary so that ideas or decisions stand the test of time.
First level thinking identifies answers driven by past experiences and beliefs. It puts more weight on the immediate effect of our actions and ignores the subsequent impact. First order thinking is safe, superficial, reactionary, obvious, quick, fast, and conventional with a focus on immediate impact. When we seek instant gratification, our first order thinking is at play.
Second level thinking, meanwhile, is hard, complex, uncertain, and unconventional as its intent is to explore potential future consequences and maximize its benefits. It is thinking in terms of interactions and time, understanding that despite our intentions, our interventions often cause harm.
Here are some ways you can explore to develop and put second order thinking into practice today.
Once you’ve identified your solution or made a decision (first-order thinking), ask yourself whether it is attractive only because it has an immediate effect that is positive.
Then ask what can be the potential downside of this idea or decision and its effect later; what might the consequences look like in 10 minutes? 10 months? 10 Years?
For each level of evaluation (in our case the timelines of 10 minutes, 10 months, 10 years), identify the corresponding positives and negatives outcomes.
Follow up with these questions to really dig deep into all possibilities –
What are my risks associated with this idea or decision?
How does my idea or decision impact others?
Why do I think my idea or decision is right?
Choose the idea or decision where the second and third order consequences are positive even though the first may not be positive (short term pain in favor of long term gain).
Learn to recognize and apply feedback loops; it may not help with your current idea or decision, but over time it will enable you to make better ideas or decisions.
Once you adopt a second order thinking mental model and start applying its template in your ideation and decision process, you will see the positive results of your efforts compound over time.
A lot of extraordinary things in life are the result of things that are first-order negative, but second order positive. You can apply second-order thinking on big decisions (e.g. buying a house), but also small, mundane, ideas or concepts (e.g. eating a cake, ticking off a task). It's a very universal tool that is relevant not just in our professional life, but also in the personal aspect.
